Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
